By Prisca Sam-Duru
The year 2025 marks a pivotal moment for Nigerian agriculture. With the Cassava Flour (Mandatory Inclusion in Flour Production) Bill, 2022 advancing in the Senate and the Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security (FMAFS) renewing its push for a 20% High-Quality Cassava Flour (HQCF) inclusion target, the political will to integrate local cassava into industrial flour production is stronger than ever.
The economic stakes are significant. Current estimates from the Nigeria Cassava Investment Accelerator (NCIA), an initiative by the Lagos Business School Pan-Atlantic University, place the actual HQCF inclusion in composite flour at just 1%, equating to a market value of approximately US$35 million. If Nigeria achieves the 20% substitution target proposed in the bill, market potential could scale up to US$1.18billion by 2030, unlocking value across the cassava supply chain and positioning HQCF as a major driver of industrial growth.
HQCF is primarily consumed by small- and medium-scale producers, especially in the bread and baked goods segment, which accounts for over 50% of current usage. Artisanal bakers remain the dominant consumer group, purchasing HQCF directly through open market channels and typically using 5–30% substitution blends to cut costs and align with policy incentives. Despite the fragmented nature of this market, the bread segment presents the largest immediate opportunity, with a potential market of ~351K tons and US$236 million in revenue.
The NCIA further notes that despite strong policy signals and growing interest, HQCF remains a largely nascent market due to persistent challenges around cost, quality, and supply reliability. Industrial uptake has been limited not for lack of demand, but due to inconsistent and uncompetitive supply.
Buyers frequently cite three critical deterrents: inconsistent product quality, price volatility, and fragmented supply chains. Many local processors struggle to meet industrial standards for granulation, moisture content, and shelf life—factors essential for large-scale baking or blending. These issues stem from limited investment in quality control, fragmented production systems, and a lack of standardized processing infrastructure.
Pricing is another structural barrier. HQCF has recently been around 9% more expensive than wheat flour, largely due to inefficient feedstock sourcing, underdeveloped logistics, and weak coordination across actors. Without scale or cost-efficiency, processors face difficulties offering a competitive product, undermining both buyer confidence and policy ambitions.
Unlocking this market will require more than regulation. It will demand targeted innovation across the value chain, from processing technologies to input supply models. Investments in R&D are essential to localize recipes and adapt HQCF to Nigeria’s consumer and industrial taste profiles. The cassava chips market presents a scalable entry point: it offers improved shelf life, enables pre-processing close to farms, and simplifies logistics, reducing some of the biggest friction points in the current system.
Encouraging signs are emerging. Processors like Sofari are investing in scalable chip-based approaches to improve handling, drying, and product consistency. Research institutions such as IITA are advancing cassava varieties better suited for flour production. But realizing full market potential will require more coordination, greater scale, and sustained investment to translate innovation into impact.
The opportunity is clear. But without structural shifts on the supply side, even the strongest policy push won’t be enough to turn HQCF into Nigeria’s next industrial success story.
- Originally published in Saturday Vanguard.
